KAMPALA, Uganda — A deepening production crisis in Kenya’s sugar belt has emerged as a significant opportunity for Ugandan millers, as a severe shortage of harvestable cane forces Nairobi to rely on its neighbors to bridge a massive domestic supply gap.
According to the latest trade data, Kenya’s sugar import bill from Uganda and Tanzania increased more than sevenfold in the third quarter of 2025. The shift followed a decision by the Kenya Sugar Board to suspend operations at seven major factories in western Kenya to allow immature crops to reach harvestable levels.
The resulting shortfall has been a windfall for the Ugandan industry. Bank of Uganda data indicates that sugar export earnings rose by over 55 percent in the current financial year, driven largely by the insatiable demand across the border. For Ugandan millers, who have often faced trade barriers and market access disputes in the past, the current crisis represents a rare period of unimpeded growth.
The situation is a stark reversal from late 2024, when President William Ruto of Kenya hailed a short-lived recovery in the sector. At the time, subsidized fertilizers and favorable weather had pushed Kenyan production above 80,000 tonnes a month, briefly meeting local consumption needs.
“For the first time in recent history, Kenya is producing enough sugar to meet local demand,” Mr. Ruto said in a November 2024 address.
However, that success proved fragile. A combination of erratic weather and the harvesting of immature cane quickly depleted stocks, leading to the current shutdowns. While Kenyan consumers face rising prices and “elevated supply pressure,” Ugandan factories are operating at high capacity to fill the void.
The surge in regional trade also saw Tanzania emerge as a surprise competitor, with its exports to Kenya increasing by nearly 19,000 percent from a negligible base.
For Uganda, the timing is particularly significant as the government implements the Sugar Act of 2025, a new regulatory framework designed to streamline the domestic industry and resolve long-standing disputes between millers and out-growers. As Kenya works to rehabilitate its state-owned mills under new private leasing arrangements, Uganda appears poised to cement its position as the region’s primary sugar supplier.
