KAMPALA, Uganda— Uganda’s northwestern and eastern regions are projected to experience above-normal rainfall, while central and southwestern areas can expect near-normal, or typical dry season conditions, during the June to August 2025 period, according to the latest seasonal climate outlook.
The forecast, issued May 30 by the Ministry of Water and Environment’s Department of Meteorological Services, emphasizes timely action to mitigate risks and capitalize on favorable conditions across climate-sensitive sectors.
The June, July, and August period typically marks the dry season in southern Uganda, serving as the main harvesting time for seasonal crops.
However, in the northern and eastern parts of the country, these months represent a continuation of the March-April-May rainy season.
The weather patterns for this period are influenced by several key climate drivers, including the neutral state of sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific and Indian Oceans, intra-seasonal variations of the Madden-Julian Oscillation, and the position of the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone.
Local factors such as topography, large inland water bodies, and vegetation cover also play significant roles in shaping rainfall distribution.
Regional Breakdown:
- Western Uganda:
- Southwestern Highlands (including Kabale, Kisoro): Expected to transition to dry conditions by mid-June, prevailing until mid-August, with overall near-normal dry conditions.
- Southwestern Lowlands (including Ntungamo, Isingiro): Anticipated to experience below-normal (suppressed) rainfall across most parts of the region after isolated showers continue until late July to early August.
- Rwenzori sub-region (including Kasese, Bundibugyo): Near-normal rainfall is expected, with scattered showers until mid-June, followed by dry conditions until mid-August.
- Central Parts of Western Uganda (including Masindi, Hoima): Expected to have near-normal to slightly above-normal rainfall, with dry conditions prevailing until mid-August after intermittent showers cease by mid-June.
- Central Region and Lake Victoria Basin:
- Western Central Region (including Lyantonde, Mubende): A high likelihood of near-normal conditions, characterized by typical dry weather, is expected after intermittent rainfall ceases around mid-June.
- Central and Western Lake Victoria Region (including Kampala, Wakiso): Near-normal rainfall is anticipated. Generally dry conditions with isolated rainfall are expected until early June, followed by dry weather until mid to late August.
- Eastern Central Region (including Mukono, Buikwe): Near-normal conditions are expected, with intermittent rainfall and thundershowers continuing until mid-June, followed by dry conditions until mid-August.
- Eastern Uganda:
- Eastern Lake Victoria and Southeastern Region (including Jinja, Mayuge): Near-normal rainfall is expected, with intermittent rains until mid-June, followed by dry conditions until mid-August.
- Eastern Parts of Kyoga Region (including Pallisa, Kibuku): Above-normal rainfall is projected for this sub-region, with isolated rains and thunderstorms expected to continue until mid-June before resuming later.
- Mount Elgon Region (including Mbale, Manafwa): A high likelihood of above-normal rainfall is expected, with isolated showers continuing until mid-June.
- Northern Region:
- Northeastern Region (including Katakwi, Amuria): High chances of near-normal to above-normal rainfall are predicted, with intermittent rainfall continuing until mid-June.
- Northwestern Region (including Arua, Koboko): Above-normal rainfall is expected. Rains will continue until mid-June, followed by occasional showers and thunderstorms until the end of the forecast period.
- Central Northern Region (including Gulu, Omoro): High chances for above-normal rainfall, with occasional heavy rains continuing until mid-June.
- Eastern Areas of Northern Region (including Dokolo, Lira): Above-normal rainfall is expected, with current rainfall trends continuing until mid-June before resuming after a slight reduction.
Potential Impacts and Advisories:
The varied rainfall patterns are expected to impact agriculture, food security, health, and water resources
- For areas with near-normal to below-normal rainfall:
- Expected Impacts: Water stress for crops like maize, bananas, and tea; shortage of pasture and water for livestock; and increased incidences of crop pests and diseases. Water sources such as streams and boreholes may decline or dry up, leading to reduced availability of surface and groundwater.
- Advisories: Farmers are advised to use available water sparingly for livestock, irrigation, and domestic purposes, mulch gardens to retain soil moisture, and preserve pasture through hay or silage. For water resources, rainwater harvesting and efficient water use are encouraged, with supplementary irrigation considered during prolonged dry spells.
- For areas with near-normal to above-normal rainfall:
- Expected Impacts: Potential for post-harvest losses, poor tuber formation (e.g., sweet potatoes), increased soil erosion, flash flooding in low-lying areas, and silting of dams.
- There is also a likelihood of increased animal and crop diseases, including foot and mouth disease.
- Bursting of riverbanks and destruction of infrastructure like roads and bridges may occur.
- Advisories: Farmers should implement soil and water conservation practices like grass bunds and mulching, and manage fungal and bacterial diseases. Agricultural infrastructure damaged by floods should be rehabilitated. For water resources, drainage channels should be opened, communities mobilized to clear water drainage areas, and tree planting promoted along riverbanks.
The Ministry of Water and Environment, through the Department of Meteorological Services, will continue to monitor weather patterns and regularly issue updates to support planning and decision-making nationwide.
