JOHANNESBURG — The war involving Iran has moved from a geopolitical story to a supply chain shock—and fast.
At the centre of it all is the Strait of Hormuz. In normal times, roughly a quarter of global seaborne oil flows through that narrow channel. Today, it’s partially blocked, militarised, and unpredictable. That matters more than most people realise, especially in Africa.
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This is not just an oil story. Yes, oil is the headline. The International Energy Agency is already calling this the largest disruption in oil market history, with up to 30% of global oil flows affected. Prices are responding accordingly. Analysts are openly discussing $150–$200 per barrel scenarios if disruption persists into the next 4–8 weeks.
But if you stop at oil, you’re missing the real risk. Because Hormuz doesn’t just move fuel. It moves, fertiliser, petrochemicals, plastics inputs and liquefied natural gas. And that’s where Africa gets hit hardest.
Across East and Southern Africa, dependence on Middle Eastern supply chains is structural, not optional. Countries like Kenya, Tanzania, Ethiopia and Zambia are already implementing emergency measures, including subsidies and reserve releases. In parts of East Africa, over 50% of fertiliser imports come via these routes and globally, up to one-third of fertiliser trade moves through Hormuz
And prices are moving fast; Urea prices are already up by 50% since the conflict began and fertiliser shortages are expected to impact planting cycles within weeks. That translates directly into higher food prices, lower yields and increased inflation. In economies where food already dominates household spend, that’s not a marginal issue. It’s systemic.
The Next 30 Days: What Actually Happens
Strip out the noise, and the next month looks like this:
- Fuel price shock hits logistics immediately
Diesel is the bloodstream of African logistics. As oil spikes, transport costs rise almost instantly. We can expect higher road freight tariffs, airline and shipping surcharges and margin compression across FMCG and retail -
Shipping delays compound the problem
Major shipping lines have already rerouted vessels around the Cape of Good Hope, adding weeks to transit times. That means longer lead times, working capital pressure and more stockouts -
Fertiliser becomes the sleeper crisis
This is the one most executives will underestimate. Miss a planting window, and the impact shows up months later in food inflation, social pressure and currency weakness -
Secondary shortages begin to emerge and this is where it gets messy:
Plastics (packaging constraints)
Chemicals (manufacturing inputs)
Even pharmaceuticals
The supply chain doesn’t break in one place—it ripples. The brutal reality is that Africa is a price taker. Most African economies are net importers of fuel and fertiliser and are highly exposed to global shipping routes which means there is very little control, only response.
The difference between businesses that weather this disruption and those that don’t will not be found in strategy decks. it will be found in the decisions made over the next two to four weeks. Lock in supply now, even at uncomfortable prices, because in volatile markets availability will always beat price.
Selectively build buffer stock across fuel, critical imported inputs, and high-margin SKUs. Working capital will sting, but stockouts will cost more. If your suppliers are still assuming normal transit routes, you are already behind; reroute early, explore alternative ports, different origin countries, and split shipments before the options narrow.
Reset contractual expectations with both customers and suppliers without delay, because what was considered late last month is fast becoming the new normal. Run at least three disruption scenarios — two weeks, six weeks, three months — and tie each directly to pricing, inventory policy, and customer communications. Finally, watch fertiliser and food input prices closely: even if your business sits outside agriculture, your customers do not, and the ripple effects on patterns are coming regardless. The window to act is open. It will not stay that way.
This is not a distant war — it is a supply chain event with immediate commercial consequences. Should the Strait of Hormuz remain unstable for another month, Africa will not simply absorb higher prices; it will contend with slower trade, tighter margins, and rising food insecurity. The uncomfortable truth is that the businesses which act early will appear paranoid today — and exceptionally well-positioned in thirty days.
