KAMPALA — The East African Community (EAC) has achieved a significant milestone in its trade relations with China, recording a trade surplus of UGX 6.8 trillion ($1.8 billion) in the first quarter of 2025. This marks the first time in recent years the region has posted a surplus with its largest trading partner, driven by a surge in exports to the Chinese market coupled with a slight decline in imports.
The breakthrough with China contributed to a dramatic economic turnaround for the EAC as a whole, which posted an overall trade surplus of UGX 3 trillion ($0.8 billion). This is a stunning reversal from the UGX 15 trillion ($4.0 billion) deficit recorded during the same period in 2024.
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According to the EAC Quarterly Statistics Bulletin, the overall surplus was fueled by a massive 47.3% surge in exports, which reached UGX 66.4 trillion ($17.7 billion). This growth far outpaced the 4.6% rise in imports, which totaled UGX 63.2 trillion ($16.8 billion). A key factor was the growth of intra-African trade, which expanded by 53.9% and now accounts for 27.5% of the region’s total trade.
Despite the trade gains, inflation remains a major concern. The bulletin reported that annual headline inflation across the EAC was 27.0% in March 2025, a significant leap from the 6.7% rate in March 2024. The increase was largely driven by persistent pressures in South Sudan and Burundi, with food inflation remaining high at 49.4%.
The report, however, noted signs of cautious optimism in monetary indicators. Broad money supply expanded by 10.1%, and credit to the private sector grew by 5.5%, reflecting a slow but steady recovery in business activity. Households remained the biggest borrowers in the region, with outstanding loans of UGX 51.8 trillion ($13.8 billion).
