George Muhimbise is a member of the Alliance for National Transformation (PHOTO/Courtesy).
This week, opposition leaders from various political parties gathered at the Katonga FDC office under their umbrella “United Forces of Change”. As usual, echoes asking Ugandans not to wait for the 2026 sham elections were made.
Dr Besigye since 2011 has made up his mind on the Ugandan electoral process which he has referred to as “useless”. I am made to understand that within FDC Katonga there is a view of mobilizing fellow opposition parties to boycott the 2026 elections unless there are electoral reforms, I think it’s an opinion that is being sold to NUP, ANT, DP & UPC!
Whereas I agree that if Gen Museveni is on the ballot in 2026, chances are that he will be declared a winner, I still believe that boycotting these elections would be a strategic blunder!
Whereas it is urged that participating in elections legitimizes Gen Museveni’s administration, it is imperative to make a cost-benefit analysis of the decision we take, looking at majorly two major categories of people; the masses and the leaders.
First of all, looking at the masses, does the opposition leadership have the necessary influence to mobilize Ugandans across the country not to participate in general elections? Has the Ugandan population developed a level of political consciousness that may lead them to boycott an election? The current political temperature in the countryside suggests that the Ugandan masses are not yet ready for a boycott!
Even if the majority of Ugandans were convinced to boycott elections, would they be in a position to take any other serious action against the NRM and make it lose credibility or would they be complacent and compliant? To answer this one may need to look at Ugandans’ previous response to campaigns like Walk to Work, Defiance, Tubalemese, etc! We need to find out that missing link!
The second aspect is leadership. Does the opposition have a network of leadership from national to local levels that can mobilize and organize the masses for a boycott and the subsequent/aftermath activities? My guess is as good as yours! More so, can the opposition parties/leaders achieve a boycott without unity or can they easily generate a consensus on a boycott? Do you see NUP convincing its 60 MPs to boycott the 2026 elections or do you see them accepting to lose the 4 billion funding per year?
If the opposition cannot unite around the idea of a boycott, wouldn’t that lead to more disunity & disorganization? Do opposition parties have the capacity to handle such contradictions or would they degenerate into anarchy?
In my view, it’s impossible for Ugandan political actors, many of whom have tested the privilege of being elected MPs or district Chairs, to accept the idea of a boycott, and yet these are the pillars around which to mobilize the masses.
Nonetheless, if a boycott is declared, how will Gen Museveni react? He will sponsor some opposition candidates both at the Presidential and Parliamentary levels, and a number of them will use this opportunity to enrich themselves or to grab Parliamentary seats. Gen Museveni will win with 70 percent, and with unchecked rigging the voter turnout will be 80 percent. A few opposition-sponsored MPs will be declared which will legitimize the exercise as a free and fair one. This whole process will leave opposition leaders more divided, disgruntled & disintegrated, and take note that it takes time to nurture a strong opposition leader in a country like Uganda.
Owing to the above, it is logical that the opposition participate in the 2026 elections despite the impediments. One, it gives us an opportunity to engage the population, an opportunity to identify new leaders for the struggle, an opportunity to expand our networks/structures, etc.
It is also an opportunity to expose the regime, because the more it breaks the electoral laws the more it is exposed. Imagine if Bobi Wine hadn’t contested in 2021, where would the tear gas come from? Whose supporters would the drones come to pick? How would the media get harassed? So it’s better to participate and expose the regime than boycott and leave the regime to enjoy its game undisturbed!
Finally, when opposition participates, and some candidates go through, it gives them access to resources both from their emoluments and from the Electoral Commission. If these resources are utilized well, they can advance the struggle further while at the same time meeting the political/personal ambitions of the individual political leaders. Any decision by Political parties that does not cater for the ‘reality’ of a politician’s “interests”, will be catastrophic for the opposition, as it will be illogical & delusional!
Muhimbise George
muhimbiseg@gmail.com, 0787836515
The author is a political analyst
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