Why Africa Should be Cautious of China

The recently concluded Ninth Ministerial Conference of the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC) in Beijing has once again laid bare the complexities and contradictions of China’s engagement with the African continent.

While Chinese President Xi Jinping’s grand pronouncements of a $51 billion investment package and lofty promises of mutual prosperity dominated headlines, a closer examination reveals a relationship increasingly characterized by imbalance, dependency, and growing African skepticism. China’s consistent pursuit of its African agenda through FOCAC, now in its 24th year, masks a more insidious reality.

The Beijing Declaration, a document bearing the unmistakable imprint of Chinese draftsmanship, outlines an ambitious vision of a “China Africa Community with a Shared Future.” However, this future appears increasingly tilted in China’s favor, with African nations finding themselves caught in a web of economic entanglement that threatens to undermine their sovereignty and long-term development prospects.

The summit’s rhetoric of “mutually beneficial and inclusive economic globalization” rings hollow when juxtaposed against the stark realities on the ground. China’s role as Africa’s largest bilateral trading partner since 2009, with trade reaching a staggering $282 billion in 2023, has not translated into equitable growth for African economies. Instead, it has perpetuated a neo-colonial model of resource extraction and market exploitation that African nations have long sought to escape. President Xi’s showcase of 10 partnership actions and promises of training opportunities for African youth and political leaders are little more than a smokescreen for China’s true ambitions. The decision to offer zero-tariff treatment to 33 African least developed countries may appear generous on the surface, but it serves primarily to further cement China’s economic dominance and create new avenues for Chinese goods to flood African markets.

The much-touted Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), far from being a panacea for Africa’s infrastructure woes, has become a vehicle for debt-trap diplomacy. With Chinese investments in BRI-related projects exceeding $120 billion over the past decade, many African nations now find themselves saddled with unsustainable debt burdens. The cases of Zambia, defaulting on a $3.5 billion loan in 2020, and Ghana, defaulting on most of its $30 billion external debt in 2022, stand as stark warnings of the perils of overreliance on Chinese financing.

China’s strategic pivot to “small and beautiful” projects, ostensibly in response to its own economic slowdown, is less a sign of benevolence than a calculated move to maintain influence while minimizing risk. This shift comes as Chinese lending to Africa has plummeted from its 2016 peak of $28 billion to a mere $1 billion in 2022, leaving many crucial infrastructure projects in limbo and African nations scrambling for alternatives.

The proposed China-Africa Economic Partnership Agreement (CAEPA) further exemplifies China’s attempts to institutionalize its economic dominance over the continent. The African Union Commission’s reservations about this framework are telling, warning that it could jeopardize the implementation of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) and hinder the continent’s industrialization efforts. The Commission’s call for African nations to negotiate as a collective unit rather than individual entities underscores the growing recognition of the need to present a united front against China’s divide-and-conquer strategy. China’s efforts to frame its engagement with Africa as a partnership between developing nations ring increasingly hollow. The reality is a relationship characterized by vast power imbalances, where China’s economic might and geopolitical ambitions often override genuine African interests. The emphasis on “respecting internal affairs” in Chinese rhetoric serves more as a shield against criticism of its practices than a genuine commitment to African sovereignty.

The African Union Commission’s recommendation that intra-African trade and domestic consumption should be the key drivers of economic transformation stands in stark contrast to China’s export-driven model. The call for Africa to manufacture and export finished products, rather than primary commodities, highlights the fundamental misalignment between China’s interests and Africa’s long-term development needs. Tanzania’s critique of the FOCAC Draft Declaration further exposes the cracks in China’s carefully constructed narrative. Dar-es-Salaam’s observations that China is attempting to carve out a China-centric world order using FOCAC as a platform should serve as a wake-up call to African leaders. The request to remove mentions of the US and the West from clauses addressing sanctions on African countries reveals a growing desire among African nations to maintain balanced international relations rather than being pulled exclusively into China’s orbit.

The reservations expressed about China’s Global Security Initiative (GSI) and Global Civilization Initiative (GCI) indicate a growing wariness of Beijing’s attempts to reshape global governance in its image.

African nations are increasingly recognizing the need to approach these grand initiatives with caution, weighing their potential benefits against the risk of further eroding their autonomy on the global stage. As China pushes for greater influence through initiatives like the Global AI Governance Initiative and the Global Initiative on Data Security, African countries must carefully consider the long-term implications of aligning themselves too closely with Beijing’s vision for the digital future. The potential for technological dependency and surveillance capitalism looms large, threatening to undermine African efforts to chart an independent course in the digital age.

The FOCAC summit’s outcomes, while wrapped in the language of partnership and shared prosperity, ultimately serve to reinforce China’s position as the dominant player in the Africa-China relationship. The octopus-like embrace of Chinese economic engagement – tightening, entangling, and often constricting – poses significant challenges to African aspirations for true independence and sustainable development.

As African nations navigate this complex relationship, they must heed the warnings embedded in the critiques of the FOCAC process. The continent’s future lies not in becoming a cog in China’s global economic machine, but in fostering intra-African cooperation, developing local industries, and engaging with a diverse array of international partners on more equitable terms. The dragon may offer grand visions of shared futures and modernization, but African leaders would do well to remember the old adage: there’s no such thing as a free lunch.

As the dust settles on another FOCAC summit, the time has come for a serious reevaluation of the Africa-China relationship – one that prioritizes African interests, sovereignty, and long-term development over the allure of quick financial fixes and grandiose promises.